How Valuable is Sergio Aguero for Your FPL Team | Premier Soccer Chat
How Valuable is Sergio Aguero for Your FPL Team

How Valuable is Sergio Aguero for Your FPL Team

Recently I got into a debate on Twitter regarding Sergio Aguero‘s fantasy value in draft format games such as Togga. John Wallin (@FantasyGaffer) over at Togga recently took him number one overall in a mock draft and had very good reason to do so, however, my contention is that he is not valuable enough to be a top ten pick in draft FPL games. My reasoning being that he misses too many matches throughout the season due to injury or being rested.

In draft formats there is always the possibility of picking a “handcuff” player (someone who can fill in when the other player is not) so in Aguero’s case, trying to draft Kalechi Iheanacho would fill that role. I covered my reasons for not wanting to draft Sergio Aguero in my article over at Togga (Is Sergio Aguero Worth a Top Ten Pick?), but here I will be focusing on Aguero’s value in the official FPL salary cap game.

In last the 2015/16 FPL season Aguero finished fourth in scoring for forwards for the year with 184 points, just one point behind Romelu Lukaku at 185. The top two forwards were Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane with 211 points apiece. Of course Harry Kane finished top of the scoring charts with 25 points while both Vardy and Aguero scored 24 apiece. These were the only three 20 goal scorers for the season with Lukaku at 18 goals in fourth.

I posit that the primary reason that Aguero did not finish first in the golden boot is because of his injuries and time spent on the bench. Here is a brief breakdown of his numbers over the past few seasons.

Year Matches Played (sub) Matches Missed Goals Goals p/game Goals p/90
2015/16 29(1) 8 24 0.8 0.9
2014/15 30(3) 5 26 0.8 0.9
2013/14 20(3) 15 17 0.7 1
2012/13 22(8) 8 12 0.4 0.6
2011/12 31(3) 4 23 0.7 0.8

 

If you compare all of this with what Harry Kane has done, there are some similarities in terms of goals scored and goals per game, but Kane has also been more consistent in terms of playing week in and week out.

Year Matches Played (sub) Matches Missed Goals Goals p/game Goals p/90
2015/16 38 0 25 0.7 0.7
2014/15 28(6) 4 21 0.6 0.7
2013/14 6(4) 28 3 0.3 0.5

 

My own plan for the 2016/17 fantasy Premier League season is to start with Sergio Aguero despite his £13M price tag. The reason being that he has averaged between 0.7 – 0.8 goals per game over his career in the Premier League. In the salary format it is relatively easy enough to offload a player who is injured and replace him by using the weekly free transfers, which would be the case when (not if) Aguero gets injured this season. The difference in a draft league is that using a first round pick on a player who doesn’t play the full season leaves points wasted when that pick could be used on a top 5 midfielder who would score more points throughout the whole year.

In the official FPL game Aguero is perhaps the most valuable player in the game. This is why he is currently the second most selected player at 38% (David De Gea is top at 40.7%). When he is fit, he is a goal scoring machine and the fact that Pep Guardiola is in charge should only increase his value this season. A case could easily be made that Harry Kane is the top FPL forward this season

I hope you enjoyed my first FPL post to begin the 2016/17 season. If you are on Twitter you can follow me @Todd_Shenk or @PremSoccerChat and stay up to date with FPL updates throughout the season here at the blog.

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